Maybe because it was drawing towards the close of August when the news seems to move more slowly, but last week was quite busy for stories questioning the very existence of the cable’s video service.  This is always a ripe topic for conversation but it’s worth taking a deeper look at some of last week’s stories to show that video is holding its own.

The week started off Monday morning with this article – “In the Living Room, Hooked on Pay TV” – by Matt Richtel and Brian Stelter in the New York Times.

The proliferation of Internet video has led to much talk of “cord-cutting” — a term that has come to mean canceling traditional pay TV and replacing it with programming from a grab bag of online sources.

But so far Americans are not doing this in any meaningful numbers. “Nor is there any evidence of it emerging in the near future,” said Bruce Leichtman, the president of Leichtman Research Group, which studies consumer media habits.

Good news for cable. But the next day, SNL Kagan reported that the 2Q numbers for paid TV subscriptions fell for the first time ever. Kagan attributes the downturn to the weak housing market and high unemployment (plus the loss of customers who had initially signed up during the DTV transition).

NewTeeVee reported this as “New Numbers Reveal: Cord Cutting Is Real,” despite including cautionary quotes from SNL Kagan analyst Mariam Rondeli. Then, NewTeeVee’s Ryan Lawler claimed “The Future of TV Is Not on Cable.” (There was also this disappointing NPR story.)

It’s important to look at these numbers in context:

• Second quarter subscriptions dip every year, as students go home from school and “snow birds” close up their winter homes.
• The Multichannel Video Programming Distributor (MVPD) market is quite mature and penetration is high. Most households that want multichannel video service have already subscribed.
• Some former over-the-air households, who had long held out on getting cable, took advantage of deals offered during the DTV transition of 2009 to become multichannel customers, but as those deals expired, they’ve cancelled. While looking like a group of disconnects, it’s more representative of people that resisted such services before and are now going back to their old ways.
• Total housing units were essentially stagnant for the previous five quarters (from Dec. ‘08 to March ‘10). Even so, over the last six quarters, the number of MVPD subscription additions (+2.1 million) have outpaced additions to housing units (+0.3 million) by 6.5 times. But a weak economy is having an effect. Even Karl Bode, in a post that said “Cord Cutters Are Very Real,” admitted that “it’s being driven primarily by the economy.”

A Merrill Lynch report on the 2Q numbers pointed out that the Netflix platform is growing (available on Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, and many Blu-ray players) and Hulu engagement is now up to 2.6 hours, but that Nielsen says that “American [households] are watching more TV than ever before,” up to eight hours a day (with that figure rising each year).

As if to put the icing on the cake, Wednesday brought a Bloomberg story that reported that Apple was looking to introduce 99-cent rentals of television shows. Some interpreted this as a threat to cable and the advent of true “à la carte.”

Jason Perlow at ZDNet ran some numbers to see if such a “pay as you go” approach makes financial sense (also see the analysis at GigaOM).

Previously, TechnoBuffalo noted that 99-cent rentals might not make much sense; last week, they pointed out that $40 per month for 70+ channels comes to less than $1 per channel.

So now Apple wants to charge you $1 per episode of any particular show?  Remember it’s a rental and if Bloomberg is correct, it’s only yours for 48 hours.  Pff.

Joe Flint notes some other causes of skepticism, including the critical point that “content providers need to make sure that their eagerness to embrace the future doesn’t undercut the present because if it does, there won’t be a future to embrace.” Robert McGarvey at Internet Evolution also said it might be a little too early to declare Apple’s victory.

It’s worth pointing out that 2Q reports also showed that cable took all of the net adds for broadband service. You have to connect to the Internet to get that streaming video. And Joel Johnson at Gizmodo answered the question “Why Are You Still Subscribing to Cable Television?” with some pretty good reasons to not cut the cord. Plus, some have noted that in tough economic times, cable can provide great entertainment value.

We’ll continue to see consumer have more choices for ways to enjoy video content both in and out of the home.  But it’s clear that cable’s video service is a viable choice for many.

The latest Pew Internet and American Life Project report on broadband provided some fairly predictable results but ones that can still be useful in determining how we approach broadband policy issues in the coming months.

The study noted that the rate of broadband growth is slowing (which happens as any new market begins to mature); and that a large percentage of non-subscribing consumers don’t believe that the government should be involved in addressing this issue.

The most pertinent findings from the report are that:

• 66% of Americans currently subscribe to high-speed Internet access at home, which equates to 3% year-over-year growth
• There was a 22% year-over-year growth rate in adoption by African Americans, by far the biggest growth rate of any major demographic group
• 53% say the spread of affordable broadband should not be a major government priority
• Respondents older than 50 were most skeptical that they would benefit from the Internet.

In delving deeper into the latter two statistics, Pew reports that, “Those who are not currently online are especially resistant to government efforts to expand broadband access.”  This is not necessarily surprising and points to an issue – relevance (i.e., “How will I benefit?”) – that has repeatedly been identified as a barrier to broadband adoption.

NCTA and the cable industry have been talking a lot about relevance and other broadband adoption issues for the past few years.  On this blog, we’ve talked about broadband adoption and considered the reasons why some people don’t choose to have home access.

In the community, we’ve seen firsthand that some consumers simply see no benefit in broadband…that is until they start using the service and then they can’t stop.

High-speed Internet service is available to 95% of American homes, but the Pew report found that 21% of American adults still do not use the Internet (and about 90% of those people say they aren’t interested in going online in the future).  So, while we seek to deploy broadband to areas that do not have access, we must also find ways to increase adoption of broadband technology.  The statistics clearly show there are a significant number of people who can get Internet service at home, yet have not jumped on the broadband bandwagon.

To help give adoption a push forward, NCTA and cable operators are finding ways to encourage adoption, improve digital literacy, educate on broadband issues and provide affordable broadband access, including:

• Digital Adoption Coalition. Led by the nonprofit organization One Economy, this coalition hopes to bring broadband to as many as 250,000 low-income households.  The coalition, which includes computer technology companies, ISPs, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), has applied for funding to get broadband to citizens in public housing facilities via computers, low-cost access, and training programs.
• Adoption Plus. Last year, NCTA proposed the Adoption Plus (A+) Initiative, a public-private partnership designed to provide discounted computer equipment, media literacy training and deeply discounted broadband service for middle school children in low-income households.  A+ program would help give millions of students the opportunity to become digital citizens of the 21st Century by driving sustainable broadband adoption and positively affecting educational outcomes.
• Digital Connectors. Comcast is actively involved with non-profit One Economy in the Digital Connectors program.  This program provides talented youth with technology, leadership and 21st Century workplace training in return for their volunteer time providing service to their friends, families and community.
• LULAC Partnership. This summer, Time Warner Cable (TWC) and the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) announced a partnership to increase broadband technology training.  TWC is providing a three-year grant for technology centers in Latino communities for training, technology and support services.  The technology centers across the country will become a part of LULAC’s Empower Hispanic America with Technology Network which already provides free broadband access to 100,000 people.  The centers will receive computer equipment, high-speed Internet access and educational curriculum.
• Cox’s Computers for Families (CFF) Program. Cox Communications a few years ago began their CFF program in Santa Barbara, California to promote broadband adoption.  This two-year public-private partnership provides sustainable broadband adoption for middle school-aged children in low income households that do not currently receive broadband service.  Sound familiar?  NCTA’s Adoption Plus program builds on this initiative at Cox.  In addition this past May, Cox began a new program in Fairfax County, Virginia called “Broadband CNCT” (Computers & Neighbors Coming Together) where homes of school-aged children in one neighborhood will receive high-speed Internet service at a discounted rate.  This is a pilot program the company hopes to replicate in other areas.

These programs are just a few examples of how industry, government and non-profit partners can address the core reasons why some Americans say they don’t and won’t subscribe to broadband.

I’ve written a number of times about so-called “cord-cutting” services in part to counter the charge that such offerings are necessarily “cable killers.” But I also keep looking into this issue because I’m genuinely interested in how the home video business is continuing to develop.

I don’t want to come across like I don’t think that over-the-top video services are great for consumers. I’m a consumer and I love ‘em. So, I wanted to point a few cool things you can see via online video.

Hulu is known primarily for its ability to catch up on the last few episodes of TV series, primarily from broadcast television. But did you know you can also watch movies?

If you like documentaries, there’s Dig!, a profile of the amusing friendship/rivalry between the bands The Brian Jonestown Massacre and The Dandy Warhols, and Big Rig, Doug Pray’s artful look at the world of long-haul truck drivers. If you enjoy Samurai cinema, check out the Zatoichi: The Blind Swordsman series (26 films were made from 1962 to 1989, plus a TV series); you can start with The Tale of Zatoichi. For comedy, revisit Mystery Science Theater 3000 or watch An American Werewolf in London for scary laughs.

If you do want to watch TV, you are strongly urged to check out the British series Spaced, with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost, plus director Edgar Wright, known from Shaun of the Dead; Jessica Hynes stars with Pegg and the two created the program. Hulu has all the episodes.

I’ve written many times about the assertion that Netflix is a perfect substitute for cable service, which doesn’t make sense. Netflix’s Watch Instantly feature is limited in its offerings, but it has a lot of excellent films tucked away in dark corners.

The Swedish version of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has recently become available and it’s a great adaptation of the popular book. If you like foreign movies, there’s also Costa-Gavras’ classic thriller Z, Jean Renoir’s 1939 film The Rules of the Game, the soon-to-be-remade vampire film Let the Right One In, and the gritty immigrant drama Entre Nos. For documentaries, there’s the Oscar-winning Man on Wire, The King of Kong (a hilarious look at competitive arcade gamers) and It Might Get Loud (a look at electric guitarists Jimmy Page, The Edge and Jack White).

For TV, you can catch up on all three seasons of Veronica Mars and all the seasons of Lost.

As for pure Internet content, I’ve been feeling really bad lately about not watching more of Felicia Day’s Web series The Guild, a comedy about online gamers, since the bits I’ve seen are so funny. On the other hand, I’ve become a regular viewer of Kevin Pollak’s Chat Show. Pollak has described his show as “Charlie Rose with a sense of humor” and that’s a good way to put it. As I said on my pop culture blog, it’s refreshing to see lengthy meaningful conversation. There are various ways to stream shows like these to your TV, such as through Xbox LIVE, PS3, TiVo, or the forthcoming Boxee Box.

With all these options, why still subscribe to cable? Well, I have an HD set and I like to watch hi-def programming, whether live or through VOD. Much as I enjoy streaming Netflix, the movies just aren’t as crisp and clear. This is also true of  the Internet content I watch on my TV.

With these cord-cutting options, my viewing choices are limited. I want to be able to watch news, when it happens, on the big screen. There are a number of cable programs I can’t get online. With my subscription to premium services, I get access to a lot of fairly recent theatrical films.

With my cable service, I’m also getting broadband, which enables me to get all this additional content. Even if I was inclined to “cut the cord,” I’d still need cable to get to the Internet.

With all these new services, I need additional equipment to connect the video to my television (For example, I stream Netflix through my Wii and I use a Bose SoundDock to connect my iPod to the TV). That’s fine, but what about my second TV upstairs?

Bottom line: I find the two to be complementary. They’re both useful, but my cable video service is still of value.

FINAL NOTE: I should point out that I’ve said before that any content producer needs to figure out how to recover productions costs and achieve profitability. I’ve also called attention to the news that Netflix (a distributor) is looking at having to spend more to get access to content and also noted that some video distributors have looked at moving from a free model to a subscription business. And I should note that if cable TV is a niche business, then Internet video is a super niche business.

There’s a really interesting discussion to be had about the future of delivering video to the home. Which technology makes the most sense? How will content companies make money in the future? How do we best address digital rights issues?

Instead, I usually read some “kill your cable” rhetoric.

So, that’s why I return to the topic of cord-cutting: Because everybody else keeps writing about it, often in an oddly hostile fashion.

CNET’s Marguerite Reardon started off an Ask Maggie column on cord-cutting this way:

If you are like me, you cringe every month when you pay your cable bill. And you dream of the day you can cut your cable cord and stop paying that monthly bill.

It’s not that I don’t like to watch TV. I do. But I can’t stand that I pay $140 a month to watch a handful of shows on five or six channels.

First, that $140 probably covers more than just standard programming . I pay about $180 a month to Comcast, which includes video, Internet and phone, including HD, a DVR, premium channels, and so on.

When a reader writes in how to watch video online, Reardon answers, “Good for you for cutting the cable cord!”

There are certainly people who choose not to subscribe to multichannel video services. Nothing wrong with that. But if you want to watch the programming – cable’s original shows, news, sports – then that’s how you get it.

Aaron Barnhart of TV Barn helpfully points out that, for all the complaining, people are continuing to subscribe to multichannel video service in growing numbers. But, counterintuitively, Reardon love to recommend that people unhappy with cable service should turn to cord-cutting – which doesn’t allow you to access all you can get from cable programming.

It would probably be along the lines of suggesting that people unhappy with cable should try reading a book. Did you know that libraries loan them out for free?

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With 95% of U.S. households already having access to broadband service with download speeds of at least 4 Mbps – including 50% of homes with access to cable’s DOCSIS 3.0 speeds of 50 Mbps and faster – broadband in the U.S. is a success story that keeps getting better.  Over the past decade, deployment of broadband throughout most of our country has created millions of jobs, added billions of dollars to our economy and unleashed innovators who are developing creative services and applications that have remarkably improved our quality of life.

While acknowledging these successes, the FCC’s Sixth Broadband Deployment Report – or 706 Report – nevertheless concludes that broadband is not being deployed to all Americans on a “reasonable and timely” basis because five percent of American households don’t have access to broadband with speeds of at least 4 Mbps.

It’s worth noting that the 4 Mbps threshold is new and represents a significant increase from the 768 Kbps used in the 2008 report, and the 200 Kbps used in the first four reports.  We have no problem using a 4 Mbps threshold for defining broadband:  I have argued for several years that 200 or 768 Kbps was an inadequate threshold for a policy definition of broadband (pages 5-6).  But if the 706 Report is to retain any value as a measurement tool, the Commission must heed its own advice and use the definition as “a relatively static point at which to gauge progress and growth… from one Report to the next.” If the Commission continually increases the speed threshold to reflect “current demand patterns” and “estimated future demand” as it did this year, it becomes a circular nullity and it will be a certainty that deployment never will be considered reasonable and timely.

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