Phillip Swann of TVPredictions.com apparently was out at SCTE’s 2008 Emerging Technologies Conference, where he made some observations on the competitive battle between DBS and cable (You can read the release here).

In 2008, satellite networks will focus on their strength—their number of high-definition video channels—since satellite lacks the Triple Play, said Swann. This emphasis poses a “great threat to cable,” he said, partly in that it may entice cable into a battle over determining which of the two is more prolific at delivering video services. Meanwhile, Swann said, if that should happen, it would enable the telcos to be better perceived in the market as the Triple Play provider of choice in 2008. By the same token, he said, cable must avoid overemphasizing its Triple Play capabilities in certain markets since that would mean video subscribers would be more easily swayed by the video-focused satellite providers, such as DirecTV and Dish Network.

Swann predicts that the insurgents in this war for customers—Apple, Netflix, TiVo, and Microsoft, to name a few—will roll out “a slew of new TV-based products and services all designed to siphon off subscribers and revenue from traditional TV providers.” Swann cautions that cable must “be very careful’’ to refrain from trying to copy them and from being “overwhelmed by the hype over the next big thing.” He added, “When Apple does something, it is believed that all must follow, but think for yourselves. Look at what has been successful.”

There are any number of issues that come up all the time in the cable business. And one of them is the pay-per-channel scheme known as “a la carte.” Sure, it sounds attractive. But when people describe what they think they will get under a mandatory a la carte plan, it doesn’t match reality.

It came up last week when NCTA’s Kyle McSlarrow was on a panel; it comes up all the time. Steve Jobs just gave his yearly Sermon on the Mount (a.k.a, his Macworld keynote) and he announced movie rentals on iTunes and an overhaul of Apple TV. This led to the Bad Luck City blog’s headline: Apple TV and iTunes video rental: Bye Bye Netflix and Cable.

What this means is that I may be able to cancel my Netflix account and rely on Apple for my movies on demand. Why send bits of data on a envelope through snail-mail when I can do it over my Internet connection?

As you know, I ditched cable for OTA television long ago, but now everyone else can do the same, at least until the cable industry offers programming a la carte.

Of course, Netflix already offers online movie viewing and they just lifted time restrictions, so that their customers can watch all they want. And cable customers get a lot more viewing options (especially if you’ve got digital cable with VOD) than someone getting DTV over-the-air.

Here’s another example in a blog post about the satellite radio business:

Sirius’ CEO Mel Karmazin has promised the FCC to allow a la carte programming for a cheaper price if the merger goes through. This way customers can pick and choose what they want to listen to. Chairman Martin of the FCC has tried to get the cable companies to allow a la carte programming, but to no avail, so he may see the Satrad merger as a precedent for a la carte options.

I’m going to keep referring people to this great column by the NY Times‘ Joe Nocera about why a la carte means fewer choices and higher prices. Maybe the message will get through.

UPDATE: And here’s another one. Diane Keaton drops an F-Bomb on Good Morning America and a Wednesday evening panel grapples with the effects. Tim Winter, President of the Parents Television Council, and Shawn Ryan, creator of FX’s The Shield, got into a tiff:

The evening’s hottest moment flared between Winter and Ryan over a PTC-supported proposal to offer consumers a la carte cable choices. Instead of having to buy multiple channels bundled in one package, the PTC supports legislation that would allow consumers to cherry-pick and pay for only the channels they want to watch.

“Why should I have to pay for FX when all I want is the Disney Channel?” argued Winter.

But Ryan, whose award-winning, gritty cop drama “The Shield” broke new ground for language and violence on basic cable, said that proposal would stifle creativity.

“I’d prefer you be honest about this,” Ryan said to Winter, whose nonprofit group originally referred to “The Shield” as “filthy trash” when it debuted. The a-la-carte proposal is a “backdoor way to censor shows and networks,” Ryan added.

On the one hand, you have mandatory a la carte leading to less diversity in programming, which could lead to fewer family-friendly viewing options. And on the other hand, cable has a better solution for content that you may be concerned about: parental controls. Everyone has different opinions about what they might block and cable’s controls let you decide. Check out our Control Your TV website or this report from PFF’s Adam Thierer.

There are a few interesting nuggets to mull over from last week’s show. It really did feel like the first time that cable played a major role at CES. Heck, we’re not the only ones in that position; just as Comcast’s Brian Roberts was the first cable executive to address CES, General Motors Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner was the first auto exec to do so. It’s great that we’re in the game, but it begs the question of what we do next.

Will Richmond had a post about how content players and consumer electronics companies will deal with their intertwined future:

…both industries recognize that we are moving into what I would call the “experience era” for video. That’s to say, success with consumers is going to rest more on these industries’ ability to deliver superior experiences which integrate content and technology in new and compelling ways. Rather than oohing and ahhing about their new TV’s picture quality or how hilarious a certain episode was, going forward consumers will increasingly cite “how cool” something is.

“How cool” are code words for “how compelling is the experience”. The new currency of video hipness will require that when I invite friends to my house and want to show off, I need to have more than just a honking-big screen or a digital collection of old programs – those will be commonplace. Instead, the experiences are what will matter. Things like seamlessly accessing broadband content on my TV, interacting with it — along with other viewers — from my couch, and moving it around my house for playback anywhere, in a snap. Delivering these types of experiences (and more) is the new competitive bar that content and technology firms should be aiming for.

Cable is currently offering choice, value and convenience, by which I mean lots of viewing options, hi-speed data access, hi-def pictures, time-shifting options, attractive bundling options, and so on. I guess for some people what once seemed extraordinary can become commonplace.  But there is even more in the works. While I won’t go into detail here, cable does have some “cool” new things coming up that should prove to be pretty compelling.

Here are just a couple of headlines from around the net to get you through the day.

Oprah returns to cable (as an owner, that is) under a new deal inked with Discovery. The Discovery Health Channel will be rebranded as the Oprah Winfrey Network and carry “lifestyles-targeted programming.” Said David Zaslav, President and CEO of Discovery Communications, “There is no stronger voice than Oprah Winfrey in engaging, motivating and connecting people to live healthier lives. Oprah has inspired me personally, and through this new venture, Oprah’s talent and drive will have a dedicated multimedia platform to empower, engage and connect with people on-air and on-line”. Oprah previously held an interest in Oxygen before the sale to NBC. Look for the new net in 2009.

An appeals court has upheld the dismissal of a suit brought by EchoStar and DirecTV to overturn a tax levied in North Carolina.  The suit argued that gross receipts (paid by both cable and satellite providers in NC) were unconstitutional and unfair to satellite providers.  The court ruled that federal courts cannot enjoin states from imposing such taxes.

If you’re using that cable broadband connection to stream video, it’s a big day for you.  First, Netflix has lifted the time constraints on its video streaming service freeing customers to watch without limits.  This move comes on the same day that MacWorld saw Apple’s Steve Jobs announce video rentals through iTunes.  Under Apple’s plan, renters would pay $3.99 for recent releases, have 30 days in which to start watching and have to complete the program within 24 hours.

Speaking of MacWorld, if you’re looking to upgrade the old computer, Apple has a simple message – thin is in.  The MacBook Air weighs in at 3 pounds and is thin enough to fit in a manila envelope.  The new machine is just a hair over 3/4 of an inch at its thickest spot, and comes standard with Bluetooth and 802.11n wireless connectivity, a built in web cam, USB and a video port that supports DVI, VGA, and S-Video.  It sports 2GB of RAM and either an 80GB drive or a 64GB Solid State Drive with no moving parts. The keyboard is full size and backlit.  The MacBook Air has an external CD/DVD drive (which never proved really popular when they were in vogue with laptops 7 or 8 years ago, but wireless is more prevalent now).  The touchpad also feature iPhone like controls that let you zoom, rotate and navigate by gesture.

Finally, a hat tip to Broadcasting & Cable for the Simpsons parody of American Idol embedded below.

The performance by Flight of the Conchords at CES had not been available at Comcast’s CES website. They’ve rectified that and you can now catch Jemaine and Bret in action. Skip to about 12:10 left in the clip.