CTAM, the marketing association for the cable industry, released a study this week that looked at different consumer segments (particularly ones that are influential in the spread of hi-tech), their technology adoption, the decision-making process, and content viewing behavior.

The study drilled in on two influential groups – future shapers and future makers, who collectively represent 30% of consumers. Most people these days have heard of early adopters, a term created by Geoffrey A. Moore in his book Crossing the Chasm, which discussed the gap that exists between those consumers who will adopt new tech products and services early in their lifecycle and the “early majority” users, who are pragmatists and will wait longer.

A Light Reading article on the study explains their significance:

…future shapers (10 percent) are the early adopters of technology who readily spread the word and whose opinions are sought out. Future makers (20 percent) are second stage adopters who will tout the benefits of new technologies. The largest group of consumers is classified as today consumers (40 percent) who wait until technologies are proven before adopting them.

(For more on the significance of influencers, see Malcolm Gladwell’s classic The Tipping Point.)

The CTAM study, Future Shapers and Makers: An Examination of Consumer Segments, conducted by TNS Media & Entertainment, found:

Almost half of today’s technology influencers are choosing television service provided by their cable company over a satellite or telephone company provider. Forty-six percent of technology’s earliest adopters choose cable, while 26 percent chose satellite and 2 percent chose to receive video services from their telephone service provider.

From the article in Multichannel News:

Doing their homework is what sets the future shapers and future makers apart. According to the survey, 67% of future shapers and 59% of future makers are likely to get information about TV services from the Internet, compared to 45% of today’s consumers. The two influencer groups are also more likely than others to obtain information from TV, newspapers, and magazines.

According to the survey, 89% of consumers are concerned primarily with the reliability of the provider, over price

In addition, the study examined the trend in watching video on alternative platforms, such as laptops, portable DVD players or devices like iPods or iPhones. The study found that 37% choose a desktop computer or laptop as their preferred method. You won’t be surprised to learn that younger consumers are most likely to watch programming online, coming in over 50% greater in their tendency to watch video on desktop computers or laptops.

UPDATE: Along these lines, it’s probably worth pointing out another study that came out this week.

In a study conducted by Canadian research firm Solutions Research Group, nearly 80 million Americans, or 43% of the online population, watched a TV show on the Internet, as of November, up from 25% a year ago.

You can read the press release on the Digital Life America study here.

There are any number of issues that come up all the time in the cable business. And one of them is the pay-per-channel scheme known as “a la carte.” Sure, it sounds attractive. But when people describe what they think they will get under a mandatory a la carte plan, it doesn’t match reality.

It came up last week when NCTA’s Kyle McSlarrow was on a panel; it comes up all the time. Steve Jobs just gave his yearly Sermon on the Mount (a.k.a, his Macworld keynote) and he announced movie rentals on iTunes and an overhaul of Apple TV. This led to the Bad Luck City blog’s headline: Apple TV and iTunes video rental: Bye Bye Netflix and Cable.

What this means is that I may be able to cancel my Netflix account and rely on Apple for my movies on demand. Why send bits of data on a envelope through snail-mail when I can do it over my Internet connection?

As you know, I ditched cable for OTA television long ago, but now everyone else can do the same, at least until the cable industry offers programming a la carte.

Of course, Netflix already offers online movie viewing and they just lifted time restrictions, so that their customers can watch all they want. And cable customers get a lot more viewing options (especially if you’ve got digital cable with VOD) than someone getting DTV over-the-air.

Here’s another example in a blog post about the satellite radio business:

Sirius’ CEO Mel Karmazin has promised the FCC to allow a la carte programming for a cheaper price if the merger goes through. This way customers can pick and choose what they want to listen to. Chairman Martin of the FCC has tried to get the cable companies to allow a la carte programming, but to no avail, so he may see the Satrad merger as a precedent for a la carte options.

I’m going to keep referring people to this great column by the NY Times‘ Joe Nocera about why a la carte means fewer choices and higher prices. Maybe the message will get through.

UPDATE: And here’s another one. Diane Keaton drops an F-Bomb on Good Morning America and a Wednesday evening panel grapples with the effects. Tim Winter, President of the Parents Television Council, and Shawn Ryan, creator of FX’s The Shield, got into a tiff:

The evening’s hottest moment flared between Winter and Ryan over a PTC-supported proposal to offer consumers a la carte cable choices. Instead of having to buy multiple channels bundled in one package, the PTC supports legislation that would allow consumers to cherry-pick and pay for only the channels they want to watch.

“Why should I have to pay for FX when all I want is the Disney Channel?” argued Winter.

But Ryan, whose award-winning, gritty cop drama “The Shield” broke new ground for language and violence on basic cable, said that proposal would stifle creativity.

“I’d prefer you be honest about this,” Ryan said to Winter, whose nonprofit group originally referred to “The Shield” as “filthy trash” when it debuted. The a-la-carte proposal is a “backdoor way to censor shows and networks,” Ryan added.

On the one hand, you have mandatory a la carte leading to less diversity in programming, which could lead to fewer family-friendly viewing options. And on the other hand, cable has a better solution for content that you may be concerned about: parental controls. Everyone has different opinions about what they might block and cable’s controls let you decide. Check out our Control Your TV website or this report from PFF’s Adam Thierer.

There are a few interesting nuggets to mull over from last week’s show. It really did feel like the first time that cable played a major role at CES. Heck, we’re not the only ones in that position; just as Comcast’s Brian Roberts was the first cable executive to address CES, General Motors Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner was the first auto exec to do so. It’s great that we’re in the game, but it begs the question of what we do next.

Will Richmond had a post about how content players and consumer electronics companies will deal with their intertwined future:

…both industries recognize that we are moving into what I would call the “experience era” for video. That’s to say, success with consumers is going to rest more on these industries’ ability to deliver superior experiences which integrate content and technology in new and compelling ways. Rather than oohing and ahhing about their new TV’s picture quality or how hilarious a certain episode was, going forward consumers will increasingly cite “how cool” something is.

“How cool” are code words for “how compelling is the experience”. The new currency of video hipness will require that when I invite friends to my house and want to show off, I need to have more than just a honking-big screen or a digital collection of old programs – those will be commonplace. Instead, the experiences are what will matter. Things like seamlessly accessing broadband content on my TV, interacting with it — along with other viewers — from my couch, and moving it around my house for playback anywhere, in a snap. Delivering these types of experiences (and more) is the new competitive bar that content and technology firms should be aiming for.

Cable is currently offering choice, value and convenience, by which I mean lots of viewing options, hi-speed data access, hi-def pictures, time-shifting options, attractive bundling options, and so on. I guess for some people what once seemed extraordinary can become commonplace.  But there is even more in the works. While I won’t go into detail here, cable does have some “cool” new things coming up that should prove to be pretty compelling.

Earlier this morning I attended the keynote address given by Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast. Paul did as well, and I suspect he’ll post himself, but it’s probably good to get two different perspectives. Engadget covered the proceedings as well.

Roberts began with a trip down memory lane. He told of a walk through the CES show floor he took with Glenn Britt, CEO of Time Warner. They were surprised to see the proliferation of devices that leverage cable’s platform, yet cable had virtually no presence at the event.

Cable, through CableLabs, began to reach out to the consumer electronics industry. As cable modems became available at retail, cable broadband took off.

Today we’re announcing the age of the closed proprietary set-top box is behind us.

Today Cable is employing a similar approach to TV and this week Panasonic and Comcast announced <tru2way>, the open standard for cable. This year <tru2way> will be rolled out to cable systems across the country and consumers will be able to purchase televisions with <tru2way> that plug directly into the cable network with no set-top box, no extra wires, and access to cable’s interactive services. <tru2way> offers an open platform for development with open APIs and a Java based system.

<tru2way> will be supported on MS Media Center PCs as well with all cable content, including program guide and OnDemand, accessible through the Media Center system.

AnyPlay

Roberts introduced Panasonic’s Toshihiro Sakamoto to introduce AnyPlay – a new set-top box with removable DVD and DVR capability. AnyPlay is a take and go device that connects to a docking station when working as the set-top box, but can be lifted out and taken as a portable media player for watching media at home or on the road. The device is about the size of a portable DVD player, but has DVR functionality embedded as well.

Roberts recognized his father, Richard Roberts who originally founded Comcast in 1963 as a 1,200 subscriber system in Tupelo Mississippi, offering 5 channels (twice as many as were available over the air).

The original premise then, as now, is “choice sells”.

Comcast began offering On Demand video services with 250 viewing choices. That increased to 1500 in a year. Now more than 10,000 viewing options are available every month. Comcast is now the largest provider of OnDemand in the world. 90% of their content is free. Customers using OnDemand have accounted for 6,000,000,000 views since launch – twice the number of iTunes downloads and six times more than NetFlix.

What’s more is OnDemand is only available to 15 of 25 million Comcast homes, but they have plans to roll out to everyone.

Beyond that, however, Comcast announced plans to provide 1,000 HD choices in every HD home by the end of 2008 (versus 150 for DirectTV). 2008 also begins rollout of a new system architecture, with 6000 movies on demand, 3000 in HD.

As they continue to grow Comcast is launching Project Infinity. Project Infinity is expected to scale well beyond 10,000 OnDemand options “to provide every piece of video content that a producer wants to put on TV – every movie, any TV show, any conceivable kind of video… it’s a content hungry consumers dream. You’ll never want to get off the couch.”

Comcast is also changing the communications experience. As the 4th largest phone company in America, Comcast serves more then 4 million customers. They’re rolling out new features like caller ID to the TV and integrated messaging on the web through a new feature called SmartZone.

SmartZone – introduced, via video, by Dennis Miller – integrated e-mail and voicemail in one inbox and integrates with another Comcast service called Fancast – a video and entertainment portal.

Ryan Seacrest joined Roberts on stage to introduce Fancast.

Fancast is not just another entertainment site. It’s a personal experience site with 3,000 hours of streaming videos, 10,000 movie trailers, and 11 million pages of entertainment. It provides personal recommendations based on your entertainment consumption (like Amazon). and it allows you to remotely control your DVR to record programs you’re looking at online.

Roberts used the discussion of Fancast to demonstrate cable’s new DOCSIS 3.0 cable modem standard with speeds in excess of 160 Mbps planned for rollout this year. Seacrest and Roberts downloaded a 2 hour HD movie in 4 minutes during the presentation – a download that would have taken 6 hours via DSL and 7 days on dialup.

After a couple of questions from audience members, Roberts introduced HBO’s Flight of the Conchords for a performance.

The presentation was well received by the audience including much applause for the new Comcast services, wideband cable modems and <tru2way>. We’ll try to get video of the event and put it online for you.

Update: Comcast has the video (minus the performance by Flight of the Conchords) here. And you can get a copy of the prepared text here.

2nd Update: New version of the video available, which includes Flight of the Conchords.

It’s official as of this morning. CableLabs announced that the “tru2way™” brand will replace use of the term “OpenCable Platform.” You may recall that the initiative, which began back in ’97 with the goal of helping the cable industry deploy interactive services, was previous known as OCAP.

Why the name change?

The tru2way brand was developed by the global brand consulting firm Siegel + Gale, in consultation with the Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing (CTAM), the National Cable & Telecommunications Association (NCTA), and marketing and technology representatives of a variety of major cable providers.

Which basically means that, based on talking with consumers, it was felt that a new name would help with branding. Manufacturers can then make products under that name.

For example: Panasonic and Comcast Announce Products With Tru2way(TM) Technology. Specifically, this means that you’ll be able to soon be able to get a portable DVR which you can take on the road, watching those TV shows you recorded.